Zombie Apocalypse

 

Nu ar fi necesare decât aproximativ o sută de zile pentru ca zombie să poată distruge umanitatea

Utilizând modele ce simulează propagarea epidemiilor, o echipă de studenți britanici a încercat să afle cât timp le-ar lua popularilor zombie să distrugă omenirea. Răspunsul este destul de succint: în foarte puțin timp.

Subiectul unei ”apocalipse zombie” a pasionat și fascinat întotdeauna, morții-vii câștigâd chiar și mai mult în popularitate după succesul seriei tv The Walking Dead. Probabil inspirați de această neobișnuită popularitate, o echipă de studenți britanici a încercat să răspundă următoarei întrebări: în cât timp zombie ar putea distruge omenirea.

Studiul, publicat în Journal of Physics Special Topics al Universității din Leicester, în Anglia, și preluat de Live Science, este bazat pe utilizarea modelului SIR, utilizat pentru simularea și studierea propagării epidemiilor în timp. S-a presupus că un zombie ar avea 90% șanse să găsească și să infecteze un om pe zi, ceea ce ar face virusul zombie de două ori mai contagios decât cel al ciumei negre, care a răvășit Europa în anii 1300.

Dacă luăm în calcul o populație inițială de 7,5 miliarde de persoane, studenții au calculat că ar fi nevoie de aproximativ 20 de zile pentru ca un singur zombie să creeze o epidemie de proporții notabile. În acel moment, pandemia a început. Neținând cont de nici o izolare geografică, populația umană ar scădea la 181 persoane în ziua 100, cu 190 milioande de zombie rătăcind împrejur.

Presupunând de această dată posibilitatea unei izolări geografice, zombie având câteva limite în posibilitatea lor de a se deplasa și a ajunge pe insule de exemplu, destinul nostru ar fi puțin mai bun, pentru că nu ar rămâne decât 273 de oameni în ziua 100, potrivit acestui studiu.

Studenții precizează totuși câteva lipsuri ale studiului, sugerând că un model mai realist ar putea presupune că fiecare zombie ar găsi mai puține victime de-a lungul timpului, căci ar fi mai puțini oameni de găsit. De asemenea, ”nu am inclus posibilitatea ca oamenii să omoare zombie”. Acest lucru ne dă un pic de speranță în cazul unei apocalipse de acest fel.

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